Whether National Cotton Purchase and Storage Policy Can Promote Cotton Market Quotes

On the 8th, it was the first day that China opened the first cotton collection and storage at the lowest protection price. Previously, the government had not set a minimum protection price for cotton belonging to cash crops because of scruples on cotton and food disputes. Since the start of the new cotton year earlier this month, the cotton price in the domestic market has been lower than the national announced 19800 yuan/ton temporary storage price for five consecutive working days, which satisfies the conditions for start-up.

It is understood that on the 8th 24300 tons of cotton purchase and storage plan no deal. “At present, new cotton is not yet on the market in large numbers. The 400-type companies have more wait-and-see attitudes. No transaction is normal on the first day.” An information manager of China Cotton Net told the author of the Daily Newspaper. In stark contrast to the zero settlement of the spot delivery, Zhengmian ** was actively trading. The volume of the main 1205 contract on the 8th was magnified several times from the previous day, and the position increased by nearly 130,000 hands, and the closing price stood at 22,000.

"Accumulating the deposit is certainly a big plus, but the overnight limit of US cotton is a trigger for stimulating the rise of domestic cotton prices." A cotton trader in Beijing told the author. It is understood that the rise and fall of US cotton is mainly due to unfavorable weather during the picking period. It is reported that heavy rain in the cotton-producing areas of Pakistan has affected the harvest. “The US cotton is in good shape and has a short-term target of 115 cents.” The trader believes that the bottom of US cotton is already very clear. Stimulated by the continuous rise of US cotton, the offer prices of the main China cotton port have been significantly raised across the board.

According to the relevant provisions of the “2011 Cotton Temporary Collection and Storage Plan,” the 2011 cotton temporary storage and storage price is 19,800 yuan per ton for standard lint to warehouse prices. For example, according to 38% of seed cotton, cotton seed price of 1-1.2 yuan/kg and reasonable purchase processing cost, the corresponding seed cotton acquisition reference price is 4.2-4.3 yuan/kg. The China Cotton Association's reference price for the purchase price of reserve cottonseeds on September 6 was 4.345 yuan/kg (the national average), and the reference price for acquisition in the Mainland was slightly lower than that in the Xinjiang region.

According to the author's understanding, Anhui and Jiangsu currently have new cotton pieces listed, but there are no cotton traders or cotton companies yet. The market expects the purchase price of seed cotton to be around 4 yuan. Xinjiang, the country's largest cotton producing area, has entered the picking period but has not yet acquired large-scale purchases. According to a Brigade in the North, this year's planting costs have risen significantly, and it is estimated that the cost increase will be close to 20%. The increase in labor costs will also cause them to fail. The labor cost this year will reach 700 yuan/mu, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total cost. %. According to the survey conducted by the author, the opening price of northern Xinjiang seed cotton at the beginning of this month was 8.2 yuan/kg, and the lint percentage was 39%.

For the acquisition of new cotton, I learned that many companies are hesitant and are in a state of entanglement. “The main reason is that the situation in the later period is not clear. I wonder if the back orders will come back. Last year, the high prices were all in their hands. This year they did not dare to rush.” said a cotton trader in Shandong, but the price of foreign cotton arrived in Hong Kong is also relatively high. , equivalent to 3 levels of price 21,000 yuan per ton.

The National Cotton Market Monitoring System's new cotton growth survey in August showed that this year's cotton growth is gratifying, and the total output is expected to be more than 7.8 million tons, which is about 1.6 million tons more than the previous year.