Early assessment of cotton: Textile companies wait for policy guidance
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On July 12th, the trading volume in the blending market decreased compared with yesterday. The trading volume of various contracts on the same day was relatively active; the total amount of orders increased and the average price continued to increase; the trading volume of commodity cotton blending transactions in the national cotton trading market decreased by 18,820 tons compared with the previous day. 780 tons, orders increased 2820 tons, cumulative orders 144,720 tons.
Second, the ** market
1. ICE: Cotton ** closed lower on Thursday, as speculative selling caused financial markets to weaken, and brokers said that the tone of the cotton market's sluggishness will continue on Friday. December cotton futures contract fell 1.06 cents to 69.93 cents per pound.
2. Zhengzhou: The main contract of Zhengmian was flat, which was lower in early selling pressure, followed by short-covering and long-term buying. The gains were later lightened up and the position was reduced, the daily line formed a small Yangxian, and the transaction volume contracted during the day. , Open interest decreased sharply. CF1301 contract traded 282,458 contracts on the day, increasing 1,360 positions on the day, holding 282,458 hands in the final position.
Third, the spot market:
Wei Qiao offer: Three levels: 18500 (temporary stop)
CC INDEX328: 18,208 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan.
Other: The average price of 527 cotton to the factory was 15,873 yuan/ton, up by 16 yuan. In the Jianghuai region, the rainfall continued. Due to a long period of wet weather, some of the cotton crops were growing poorly. Farmers were actively investing in field remediation and strived to reach the standard of cotton production as scheduled. It is understood that some cotton mills purchase low-grade real estate cotton in order to reduce costs and ensure the operating rate as much as possible, and wait for further guidance from the state policy. As for the cotton vice, cotton oil and quail prices are still showing a pattern of steady increase and rise; the demand for short velvet is light and the weakness is dominant. In the downstream, the sales volume of cotton yarns increased slightly, but the downstream status also increased.
Fourth, the macro environment: as of July 11 ICE cotton stocks for the 128,738 packages. On the week of July 5, the current annual export sales of cotton in the United States increased by 88 million bales. U.S. stocks ended lower, investors worried about global economic prospects and corporate profits. China will publish GDP data for the second quarter of this year, with market expectations of 7.7%
V. Operational recommendations: The main contract of Zheng cotton was closed flat and closed on the Xiaoyang line. The daily line was supported by the 10-day moving average and the trend continued to fluctuate over the pattern; the hour pattern rebounded to form a box consolidation and the short-term range formed a concussion, but the price did not break the consolidation range yet. The high point is the 19650 line; short-term shocks are more likely to be adjusted, but the oversold trend has not been destroyed, and the market outlook remains cautious. Operational recommendations: wet storage more than a single holding, stop loss 19200.
Sixth, the trend test: 1301 rose (neutral), more than one holding, stop loss 19200
Arbitrage operation: sell January to buy May, wait and see.
