Investors may postpone the reorganization of cotton prices
Last week, both domestic and international cotton markets broke through previous resistance levels, with the Zhengzhou Cotton CF1101 contract surging to 17,500 yuan per ton after a sharp rally. Meanwhile, the ICE December cotton contract hit a high of 78.30 cents per pound. This marked a significant shift in investor sentiment, as the entire agricultural commodity market saw a rebound in the second half of the week after a prolonged period of decline.
Despite weak economic data released throughout the week and a strong U.S. dollar putting pressure on commodities, the Dow Jones index fell below the 10,000 level. However, with the U.S. dollar index hovering near 83 and showing signs of a slight pullback, the commodity market remained volatile. Crude oil prices continued to recover, supported by strong fundamentals. In the agricultural sector, supply and demand dynamics have improved, helping most crops stabilize or even rise. This positive trend has made many agricultural products more attractive to investors.
Among them, the cotton market stood out, with the Zhengzhou Cotton November contract breaking above the key resistance level of 17,200 yuan per ton. The market has clearly moved past the historical ceiling where cotton prices rarely exceeded 15,000 yuan per ton. Investors are now re-evaluating the new price range for cotton, which is no longer seen as a long-term downward trend. Although current prices are at historic highs, they have pulled back slightly, making a return to 16,000 yuan per ton less likely in the short term.
Additionally, the timing of the integration between old and new cotton harvests may be delayed, leading to a smoother transition in prices. As a result, the Zhengzhou Cotton market is expected to remain resilient. Investors can consider buying during dips, but should avoid overextending themselves in pursuit of higher prices. With the overall market showing signs of strength, it's a good time to stay cautious and strategic.
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