Wool future development trend

At the 26th China International Wool Textile Raw Materials Trade Information Exchange Conference, the reporter interviewed Yang Xiongxiong, Chairman of the Nanjing Wool Market, and asked her to analyze the development status of China's wool textile industry and the trend of the wool market.

Alternative fiber shock

Reporter: The market price of wool in 2013/2014 is in an ups and downs. Can you analyze the reasons?

Yang Xiongxiong: From July 2013 to now, the pattern of the “Icefire” in the wool market has not changed. On the one hand, although the demand continues to weaken, the proportion of wool in textile fibers has dropped from 1.8% to 1.5%, but the coarse hair supply is still in short supply. On the other hand, 70S to fine wool has been in the cold winter, the price fell from high, the tops appear upside down. From the trend of the average price index of T54PPP, T55, and T424 in the Nanjing wool market, it was further verified that fine support was the worst hit area this year. In particular, the price of ultra-fine wool fell by about 12% compared with that in July 2013, and gross support was maintained. Rally.

Reporter: Customs data show that the amount of raw wool imported from China this year decreased year-on-year, but the export of wool tops increased. What is the specific situation? What caused it?

Yang Xiongxiong: China is an important wool importer and processor in the world. In 2013/2014, China imported 260,100 tons of raw wool, a decrease of 3.4% compared with the previous year. Among them, about 16.3 million tons of raw wool was imported from Australia, down 7.3% year-on-year. However, coarse hair in Uruguay, Europe and other regions remained popular.

The reason for the decrease in imported wool was analyzed. Due to the decline in global wool production this year and the decrease in the use of wool in China, the market demand weakened and domestic buyers were not willing to buy wool. From July 2013 to June 2014, China's export of tops totaled 3.79 tons, an increase of 17.7% from the same period last year. The export market is relatively good this year, mainly exported to Italy, South Korea, Germany, Turkey, and Japan. It is reported that in the first quarter of the euro area, GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year, and the economic growth rate accelerated over the previous quarter, in which household consumption has continued to achieve weak growth for six months. It is expected that the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will exceed the first half of the year, indicating that the export of tops will increase.

In the case of a small amount of raw wool imported this year, the increase in exports means that domestic demand in the domestic wool market is extremely weak. This has a lot to do with the shrinking of domestic tooling replacement and the drastic shrinkage of industry uniform orders.

Reporter: Please analyze and predict the future trend of the wool market.

Yang Yuxiong: For the future trend of wool prices, it is still necessary to return to fundamentals. Wool price is the game between demand and output. In the first half of 2014, the overall trend of consumer confidence in China was better than the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the consumer confidence index was all above the boom line of 100, indicating that consumers were relatively more optimistic and their willingness to consume increased significantly. The wool market is still sluggish, which shows that the demand for wool in clothing is decreasing and the willingness to buy wool products is decreasing.

In recent years, the rapid development of wool substitute fibers has also caused a significant impact on the wool market. For example, chemical fiber fibers have a high degree of industrialization, low prices, and the rapid development of functionality, and are closer to the concept of consumption of young people. Therefore, in the second half of the year, given the unchanged supply, the demand for finished products is weakening in view of the current demand for wool. I think the possibility of a rise in wool prices is very small.

Unreasonable supply chain structure

Reporter: What do you think of the development characteristics of China's wool textile industry this year? What are the problems that need to be solved?

Yang Yuxiong: The following features are presented in terms of the development of the domestic wool textile industry.

First, the development of the industry is uneven. The current fashion trends in the international market are rough and retro, which is embodied in the wool textile subdivision industry: worsted fabric companies have relatively stable operating conditions due to a relatively complete industrial chain; woolen fabric companies are more able to cater to current trends and have sufficient orders. The wool raw material is embodied in the strong price of carbonized wool and the demand for coarse wool. On the other hand, semi-worsted yarns, yarns, and yarn companies are in dire straits and orders flow out.

Second, high-quality brand companies are in a leading position in the cruel market competition. This year, with the brand's advantages, spinners put aside their positions, large and small orders, and small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling. The living space will be further compressed, and the “Matthew effect” of the strong strong will be highlighted.

Third, the industry capital chain is getting more and more nervous. As the textile industry has been classified as a high-risk industry by banks, many large-scale trading companies in China have withdrawn from the wool trade. The industry is seriously affected by the ischaemia and it is very unfavorable for the development of the industry.

This year, the development of China's wool textile industry is difficult. Besides the weakening of market demand, I think the industry also has its own problems. For example, wool raw material supply chain structure is not reasonable. In recent years, the wool raw material supply chain has become olive-shaped, with two small and large middle. The two suppliers and textile companies are constantly shrinking, while the production capacity of the intermediate processing companies is continuously increasing. In the market, the competition among primary processing companies is very tragic and it is worrying.

In addition, the industry is not standardized. The recent turmoil in the arrears of the wool industry made it difficult for other companies to operate because of the break in the capital chain. Therefore, some corporate behaviors need to be regulated, and the development of the industry needs protection.

Promotion must be strengthened

Reporter: What are the plans for the Nanjing wool market?

Yang Xiongxiong: We will start from three aspects. First, regulate corporate behavior. In the future, the market will review the quotation information, stop the publication of false information provided by customers, and use the market arbitration mediation function to cooperate with major Maotian inspection agencies to regulate non-standard behavior in the wool trade.

Second, increase corporate financial services. In cooperation with banks, the Bank will continue to promote a series of fund platform functions such as bank acceptance bill discounting business and import agent licensing business, and will also conduct corporate credit evaluations and escort creditworthy companies.

Third, increase wool propaganda. The salons, wool training courses and other forms of activities will continue to be regularly organized to promote our favorite wool.